It seems that it was a tale of two presidents, one confident in his knowledge of Greek thinking and the other not so much. During the state dinner in Beijing hosted by the President of China, Xi Jinping asked a rhetorical question – could America and China avoid the “Thucydides Trap”? Mr. Xi cited the concept as he warned that Beijing and Washington could enter an “extremely dangerous place” if President Trump sought to impede China as it asserted itself over Taiwan.

The existence of the trap was proposed by the Athenian General and historian, Thucydides, in response to the war between Athens and Sparta. Sparta was the established power and Athens was the new kid on the block, wanting to establish its dominance. In Mr. Xi’s version of the analogy, an emboldened China is the Athens to an American Sparta.

Neither role is especially attractive: Athens lost the war, its empire and most of its influence. Sparta won, but its dominance among Greek city states also waned after a few decades. Academics looking back on what has actually happened in such circumstances over the millennia have identified 16 times in history that a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. According to one historian, 12 of the 16 rivalries ended in a conflict.

In his speech in reply, Mr Trump said:

“Just as many Chinese now love basketball and blue jeans, Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States, all combined. That’s a pretty big statement.”

So I think that means that Taiwan has nothing to fear as long as the American population supports Chinese restaurants. Bigly.

Of course, the implication of what Xi said is that America is Sparta, the waning power, and China is the rising power. Presumably, after someone had managed to explain what Xi was saying, the Donald put out a post on Truth Social saying:

@realDonaldTrump

When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden..., and on that score, he was 100% correct. Our Country suffered immeasurably with open borders, high taxes, transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, DEI, horrible trade deals, rampant crime, and so much more!

President Xi was not referring to the incredible rise that the United States has displayed to the world during the 16 spectacular months of the Trump Administration, which includes all-time high stock markets..., military victory and thriving relationship in Venezuela, the military decimation of Iran (to be continued!) — Strongest military on earth by far, economic powerhouse again, with a record 18 trillion dollars being invested into the United States by others, best U.S. job market in history, with more people working in the United States right now than ever before, ending country destroying DEI, and so many other things that it would be impossible to readily list. In fact, President Xi congratulated me on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time.

Two years ago, we were, in fact, a Nation in decline. On that, I fully agree with President Xi! But now, the United States is the hottest Nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before!

So then an impartial analysis of America’s greatness – SO GREAT!

I’m not sure that Trump is very worried about overarching political ideas. Trump’s policies are designed simply to enrich himself and his family, rather than promote the well-being of Americans in general, or to increase the power and economic muscle of the USA. He doesn’t care what he says or how many lies he tells in his narcissistic ramblings, such as his Truth Social post, as long as he is portrayed as the winner. Denouncing Joe Biden has become the all-purpose response to questions about Trump’s policy failures.

But the Biden administration was, in fact, serious about responding to China’s technological and industrial challenge. As I understand it, the CHIPS and Science Act was explicitly intended in large part as a way to respond to China’s inroads in information technology by boosting the U.S. technology sector; Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’, which promoted industries associated with renewable energy, was an attempt to blunt the impact of growing Chinese dominance in that field.

Trump’s America, however, is not interested. China, despite having massive wind-farms, apparently never turns them on. They’re just there to sell the same ‘hopeless windmills’ to other countries. So Trump has moved rapidly to cancel Biden’s industrial policy, a turnaround that has, among other things, led to a marked slump in manufacturing and construction. The great deal-maker, Trump, wants doing deals to be the basis of America’s economy – all the easier for creaming off commissions.

Fortunately even some of his erstwhile supporters are now losing faith and his support in general is cratering. So then there is hope for change at the mid-terms.

But the corruption goes further and deeper. Insider dealing is an insidious evil in the Trump administration. Investment decisions are being made in the hours or even minutes before actions are taken or decisions disclosed.

This attitude has now spread down the chain: someone bet big on the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro just hours before the head of state was seised by U.S. forces in Caracas. The unknown better had already placed a wager against Maduro remaining as Venezuela's leader, and increased his bet in less than five hours before the U.S. hit the Venezuelan capital with rockets, according to the Wall Street Journal. The gambler's gains on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, earned them more than $400,000, 12 times what they invested. The prescient bet has led to some speculation that someone with foreknowledge of the operation made a very nice profit from insider information.

Which takes us on to crypto currency. It’s surprising how easily certain people have become converted to the benefits of the blockchain. During his first presidential term, Trump opposed cryptocurrency, calling it "not money" and "based on thin air." However, his stance changed in his second term, where he actively promoted crypto and appointed crypto-friendly regulators. His own ventures into crypto have made him fortunes as a founder of his own currencies – at the expense of later MAGA investors.

And now we see a similar pattern emerging in Britain. We have the extraordinary situation where Christopher Harborne, a Thai based crypto-billionaire, has given £12 million to Reform UK and then Guardian reporters found that he had also given £5 million to Trump’s mini-me, Farage himself. Farage said it was for his security and so was a ‘personal gift’. The Donor said it was as a thank you for Farage’s support for Brexit.

This was just a month or so before he finally decided to stand as a candidate at the last election. Crypto currency was not a significant factor in the early days of Reform UK or its previous iterations. Increasingly, however it has become a major policy.

Farage has criticised the Bank of England’s lukewarm stance on it. He says that if his party were in power, things would have to change, with bitcoin becoming a significant part of the Bank’s holdings, There would also be a drive to make Great Britain a crypto powerhouse.

In the meantime, Farage has bought a £1.2million house for cash and invested £200,000 in a new bitcoin venture set up by Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer in Liz Truss’s government – so quality assured!

It remains to be seen whether the Parliamentary enquiry into the gift to Farage will reveal a breach of the obligation to register it.

If there is a finding against him, then what effect will that have on his popularity? Will it just be classed as an ‘establishment’ attack against a man who, in public, drinks beer (although in private is more partial to wine) or will his followers finally see him as he actually is – a person whose only principle is to feather his own nest?

Paul Buckingham

18 May 2026