Paul Buckingham - Blog Philosophy and life in general

Of course, bullying can occur anywhere, even in the workplace, but nowadays this type of behaviour can be the subject of huge claims.

However, bullying is mostly associated with children, at school, in the playground. As a child, if you are not part of the bully's gang, it is probably best to keep a relatively low profile or at least hope that teachers are present to keep order.

Despite never being the biggest kid in class, I was lucky because I don't remember, at least, being bullied. Perhaps it was because for most of my school time I was part of a class where we were more academically inclined - all a bit nerdy - and so there was a reduced chance of potentially unfavourable encounters.

On the world playground, however, we have bullying very much to the fore. We have many countries large and small where the government itself, in the person of a dictator, is a bully.

Normally the effect of bullying is confined to the people of the country. But, as we have seen in the past, bullying can spread to neighbouring countries. And at that point, the other countries in the line of fire have had to come together to fight against the invading country.

During the Second World War, America initially decided that it was not its responsibility - because it was not directly threatened. Fortunately, the Japanese inadvertently gave support to the idea, promoted by Winston Churchill, that a Hitler triumphant in Europe would be a world problem. Finally, then, the power of the United States could be used to defeat the Nazi threat.

Like adolescents, however, countries go through phases. And now we see the US itself in a belligerent phase. They have become arguably the world's most arrogant bully.

Perhaps this is because the new leader has surrounded himself with sycophants who are by definition unable to moderate their leader. But he has also evidently decided that he must appeal to his most extreme supporters. Not only does he want to annex Canada and Greenland, but he wants the whole world to bow down before the bullying power of America.

The latest example is Colombia. Trump decided to expel immigrants from the country using military planes with their ‘passengers’ in chains - despite the fact that they were not convicted criminals. Why? Because it gives the impression of strength, of power, of action to his supporters who are convinced that almost all undocumented immigrants are criminals who have fuelled a crime wave. This is not true, but Trump has told them it is true and, therefore, he must act consistently with what has been a major part of his criticism of the Biden administration. He is unable to carry out a limited crackdown without admitting he lied.

Colombia's president protested about the treatment of its citizens, but Trump responded with a threat of tariffs. In my ignorance I was under the impression that the main product exported to the US was cocaine, and imposing tariffs on that would be a problem. But no, apparently they also export flowers and precious stones. And we are coming up to Valentine's Day. So Trump has won this battle.

But perhaps he has not won the war. Because there is a difficulty to come. Trump has convinced his supporters that there are undocumented immigrants everywhere. In fact they are perhaps 5 per cent of workers in total. But what he has failed to notice is that they work in two main sectors - construction and farms.

As Nobel Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman, points out, ‘The loss of a large fraction of these workers would be a major blow to the economy, especially since immigrants, legal and undocumented, play a much larger role in some sectors and occupations than they do in the economy as a whole’.

Agriculture is the most striking example: immigrants - many of them undocumented - make up the majority of the agricultural labour force. If these workers leave, either through actual deportation or detention or the creation of a climate of fear, the cost of living will go way up and, with this increase, there will be inflation.

And then there is the fact that 25 per cent of construction workers are immigrants. But if we remove those who work in offices in order to consider only those who are ‘construction workers’, i.e. people who build things, the percentage rises to 31%. And if we consider special trades, such as plasterers, the percentage rises again to 60%. And in America, as in ours, there is a housing shortage, especially for young people. So his immigration policy could be his first defeat given the unintended consequences.

Obviously, Trump is not the only bully in the world, although he is probably the most powerful. At the moment, US power in the hands of a president who threatens to use it, means that allied countries feel they have little choice but to rush to appease him.

But there is some wisdom in President Roosevelt's aphorism (the portrait of whom Trump had removed from the Oval Office) that ‘one should speak softly even if holding a big stick’. In the end, as China has discovered in recent years with its now-abandoned ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomatic style, a threatening attitude from a major power comes at a price, as the goodwill of friends evaporates.

Trump does not understand much and it is obvious that he is not a master of detail. And he is even less of a master of foreign policy. And so last Sunday he decided that the entire population of Gaza should move to Egypt and Jordan. His justification is that Gaza is only fit for demolition and clearance, as if it were a normal building project.

And in response, the people of Gaza have decided to return to the ruins - because it is their country. They do not want to abandon the idea of a Palestinian state. Neither do Jordan or Egypt want to have a few million more inhabitants. Perhaps resistance to bullying starts in the ruins.

Or perhaps resistance is born as a reaction to his expansionist policy in the north. The idea that Canadians want to become Americans is ridiculous. And if Trump were to ‘win’ the argument by applying penal tariffs, annexing a country with a population that is clearly opposed to such an action would mean very strong popular resistance. One would have to resort to the army to maintain order.

Or perhaps we should start with Greenland. The Danish minister responsible for Greenland has revealed that the UK actually has an option to buy the island when it is next put on the market! I do not know exactly what the reaction would be of the islanders, who already have the right to demand independence.

The difficulty for them however is that they are dependent on subsidies from Denmark. This explains why the UK would not be very keen on exercising the option. And also why the cost of buying the island and maintaining it would be an additional cost for American citizens. It would probably not be very popular.

At this point I was going to add religions to the list of bullies. And in particular the fervent evangelicals of America who support Trump in an unholy pact - he has their votes on condition that he changes the law to impose their theology: a variant of the blasphemy law of a bygone era. But we already know that.

Instead, I have decided to end with artificial intelligence. As part of the ‘MAGA’ policy, a few days ago, Trump declared his intention to create a $500 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence, with an initial investment of $200 billion, which, according to him, only the US government can do.

A day later Musk declared that the initial investment would not be enough to make any worthwhile progress and that finding the other $300 billion would be very difficult.

And then... And then another day later we had the announcement by a Chinese company that had created ‘DeepSeek’, the equivalent of the LLM, Chatgpt, but using chips that cost a fraction of the cost of Nvidia chips, the sale of which are banned in China by the US government.

And not only is the cost of the hardware the equivalent of Ryanair compared to British Airways first class, but the operating system is ‘open source’ - free. You can then train the model on your own data, thus avoiding the Chinese government censorship built into the demonstration model. So not only is it very cheap, but it can be used for all kinds of applications by anyone in any country.

We know that bullies brag and threaten. They rely on that to convince us to do what they want. But sometimes, as with DeepSeek, they get a custard pie in the face and then we can all look on and laugh - and maybe no longer be cowed by their threats.

28 January 2025

Paul Buckingham

	Bullying

	Of course, bullying can occur anywhere, even in the workplace, but nowadays this type of behaviour can be the subject of huge claims. However, bullying is mostly associated with children, at school, in the playground. As a child, if you are not part of the bully's gang, it is probably best to keep a relatively low profile or at least hope that teachers are present to keep order. Despite never being the biggest kid in class, I was lucky because I don't remember, at least, being bullied. Perhaps it was because for most of my school time I was part of a class where we were more academically inclined - all a bit nerdy - and so there was a reduced chance of potentially unfavourable encounters. On the world playground, however, we have bullying very much to the fore. We have many countries large and small where the government itself, in the person of a dictator, is a bully. Normally the effect of bullying is confined to the people of the country. But, as we have seen in the past, bullying can spread to neighbouring countries. And at that point, the other countries in the line of fire have had to come together to fight against the invading country. During the Second World War, America initially decided that it was not its responsibility - because it was not directly threatened. Fortunately, the Japanese inadvertently gave support to the idea, promoted by Winston Churchill, that a Hitler triumphant in Europe would be a world problem. Finally, then, the power of the United States could be used to defeat the Nazi threat. Like adolescents, however, countries go through phases. And now we see the US itself in a belligerent phase. They have become arguably the world's most arrogant bully. Perhaps this is because the new leader has surrounded himself with sycophants who are by definition unable to moderate their leader. But he has also evidently decided that he must appeal to his most extreme supporters. Not only does he want to annex Canada and Greenland, but he wants the whole world to bow down before the bullying power of America. The latest example is Colombia. Trump decided to expel immigrants from the country using military planes with their ‘passengers’ in chains - despite the fact that they were not convicted criminals. Why? Because it gives the impression of strength, of power, of action to his supporters who are convinced that almost all undocumented immigrants are criminals who have fuelled a crime wave. This is not true, but Trump has told them it is true and, therefore, he must act consistently with what has been a major part of his criticism of the Biden administration. He is unable to carry out a limited crackdown without admitting he lied. Colombia's president protested about the treatment of its citizens, but Trump responded with a threat of tariffs. In my ignorance I was under the impression that the main product exported to the US was cocaine, and imposing tariffs on that would be a problem. But no, apparently they also export flowers and precious stones. And we are coming up to Valentine's Day. So Trump has won this battle. But perhaps he has not won the war. Because there is a difficulty to come. Trump has convinced his supporters that there are undocumented immigrants everywhere. In fact they are perhaps 5 per cent of workers in total. But what he has failed to notice is that they work in two main sectors - construction and farms. As Nobel Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman, points out, ‘The loss of a large fraction of these workers would be a major blow to the economy, especially since immigrants, legal and undocumented, play a much larger role in some sectors and occupations than they do in the economy as a whole’. Agriculture is the most striking example: immigrants - many of them undocumented - make up the majority of the agricultural labour force. If these workers leave, either through actual deportation or detention or the creation of a climate of fear, the cost of living will go way up and, with this increase, there will be inflation. And then there is the fact that 25 per cent of construction workers are immigrants. But if we remove those who work in offices in order to consider only those who are ‘construction workers’, i.e. people who build things, the percentage rises to 31%. And if we consider special trades, such as plasterers, the percentage rises again to 60%. And in America, as in ours, there is a housing shortage, especially for young people. So his immigration policy could be his first defeat given the unintended consequences. Obviously, Trump is not the only bully in the world, although he is probably the most powerful. At the moment, US power in the hands of a president who threatens to use it, means that allied countries feel they have little choice but to rush to appease him. But there is some wisdom in President Roosevelt's aphorism (the portrait of whom Trump had removed from the Oval Office) that ‘one should speak softly even if holding a big stick’. In the end, as China has discovered in recent years with its now-abandoned ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomatic style, a threatening attitude from a major power comes at a price, as the goodwill of friends evaporates. Trump does not understand much and it is obvious that he is not a master of detail. And he is even less of a master of foreign policy. And so last Sunday he decided that the entire population of Gaza should move to Egypt and Jordan. His justification is that Gaza is only fit for demolition and clearance, as if it were a normal building project. And in response, the people of Gaza have decided to return to the ruins - because it is their country. They do not want to abandon the idea of a Palestinian state. Neither do Jordan or Egypt want to have a few million more inhabitants. Perhaps resistance to bullying starts in the ruins. Or perhaps resistance is born as a reaction to his expansionist policy in the north. The idea that Canadians want to become Americans is ridiculous. And if Trump were to ‘win’ the argument by applying penal tariffs, annexing a country with a population that is clearly opposed to such an action would mean very strong popular resistance. One would have to resort to the army to maintain order. Or perhaps we should start with Greenland. The Danish minister responsible for Greenland has revealed that the UK actually has an option to buy the island when it is next put on the market! I do not know exactly what the reaction would be of the islanders, who already have the right to demand independence. The difficulty for them however is that they are dependent on subsidies from Denmark. This explains why the UK would not be very keen on exercising the option. And also why the cost of buying the island and maintaining it would be an additional cost for American citizens. It would probably not be very popular. At this point I was going to add religions to the list of bullies. And in particular the fervent evangelicals of America who support Trump in an unholy pact - he has their votes on condition that he changes the law to impose their theology: a variant of the blasphemy law of a bygone era. But we already know that. Instead, I have decided to end with artificial intelligence. As part of the ‘MAGA’ policy, a few days ago, Trump declared his intention to create a $500 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence, with an initial investment of $200 billion, which, according to him, only the US government can do. A day later Musk declared that the initial investment would not be enough to make any worthwhile progress and that finding the other $300 billion would be very difficult. And then... And then another day later we had the announcement by a Chinese company that had created ‘DeepSeek’, the equivalent of the LLM, Chatgpt, but using chips that cost a fraction of the cost of Nvidia chips, the sale of which are banned in China by the US government. And not only is the cost of the hardware the equivalent of Ryanair compared to British Airways first class, but the operating system is ‘open source’ - free. You can then train the model on your own data, thus avoiding the Chinese government censorship built into the demonstration model. So not only is it very cheap, but it can be used for all kinds of applications by anyone in any country. We know that bullies brag and threaten. They rely on that to convince us to do what they want. But sometimes, as with DeepSeek, they get a custard pie in the face and then we can all look on and laugh - and maybe no longer be cowed by their threats. 28 January 2025 Paul Buckingham
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